Care England Warns Workforce Gains at Risk Without Urgent Government Action

Care England, the largest representative body for independent adult social care providers, has responded to Skills for Care’s latest report on the size and structure of the adult social care workforce with cautious optimism, warning that recent gains are built on fragile foundations that are now under threat.

The report, released today, finds that the vacancy rate in adult social care has fallen to 7%, returning to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2020. The number of filled posts rose to 1.6 million – a 3.4% increase on the previous year – while vacancies fell by 12.4%, now totalling 111,000. However, the picture is far from straightforward.

Professor Martin Green OBE, Chief Executive of Care England, said:

“This report reflects progress, but it is progress resting on an increasingly precarious base. It would be wrong to view this as a policy success story. In truth, this rebound has been driven by international recruitment, not by structural reforms to make care a more attractive domestic career. That’s a gamble the Government is now walking away from.”

Despite the apparent gains, the foundation of this recovery is unstable. International recruitment has been the primary driver of workforce growth over the past three years, with more than 230,000 overseas staff joining the sector since 2022/23. But that pipeline is rapidly drying up: in the past year alone, the number of international recruits halved from 105,000 to 50,000, just as new immigration rules are set to restrict the Health and Care Worker visa route from July 2025.

At the same time, the number of British nationals in the workforce continues to fall – 30,000 in 2024/25 and 85,000 since 2020/21. The domestic recruitment challenge is worsening, not improving.

Professor Martin Green OBE, Chief Executive of Care England, said:

“We are pulling up the drawbridge just as the sector begins to stabilise. This report makes clear that the domestic workforce continues to decline at the very moment the international recruitment route is being closed off. At a time when we should be reinforcing the foundations of the sector, we’re weakening them. This is not a sustainable path. Without urgent action, today’s progress risks unravelling into tomorrow’s crisis.”

The long-term picture adds to the alarm. Skills for Care projects that the sector will need 470,000 additional posts by 2040 – a 27% increase – to meet rising demand from an ageing population. Yet the policies in place today are neither sufficient nor sustainable to meet that need.

Care England welcomes the introduction of the Fair Pay Agreement (FPA) and Employment Rights Bill (ERB) as long-term solutions but warns that they will take years to deliver tangible change. In the meantime, providers are facing escalating costs, uncertainty, and a shrinking pool of available staff.

“FPA and ERB are vital steps forward, but they are not a silver bullet -and they won’t ease the pressures providers are facing right now. We need a bridge between the workforce we have and the workforce we need.”

Care England is calling on the Government to take immediate action, including:

• Reinstating and extending visa access for care workers under the Health and Care Worker route and ensure the right support for those already here.
• Providing funding to support the implementation of the FPA and ERB
• Deliver, and fully fund, Skill for Care’s co-produced workforce strategy to fill the projected 470,000 additional posts by 2040
• Investing in a domestic recruitment plan that tackles low pay, limited progression, and job insecurity head-on

Martin Green concluded:

“This report should be recognised as a turning point, not used as a cause for complacency. The sector has shown resilience, but resilience is not the same as sustainability. If Government is serious about delivering quality care for the future, it must back this workforce with action, funding and policy that reflects the scale of the challenge ahead.”